Book Review: The Premonition—A Pandemic Story

When writing his previous book, The Fifth Risk, author Michael Lewis explored the risks that the federal government protects us from through the use of experts in the government. These experts had been ignored for decades. The first three years of the Trump administration, they got lucky. Then came the coronavirus.

Michael Lewis has become one of America’s best storytellers. He has had a string of bestsellers, with at least two made into movies: The Big Short and Moneyball. In The Premonition—A Pandemic Story, he uses hindsight to delve into the stories of the few people who made a difference during the pandemic.

There is a small cast of characters involved here, a few in government and many in the private sector. But most of those who should have protected Americans from a pandemic, come off pretty badly in the telling of this tale. The CDC can’t get out of its own way. The testing labs are so slow that they aren’t relevant. The American medical system really isn’t a system at all and is mostly set up to make money for private companies. Free tests couldn’t be entered into computer systems because they couldn’t accept zero as a cost. Unfettered capitalism also comes away tarnished. The Trump administration actively tried to stop those responding to the pandemic.

Fortunately, there were some heroes and most of the book covers their unlikely stories. President George W. Bush read about the Flu of 1918 and ordered preparations for a pandemic. He had already had 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina during his presidency and didn’t want to add a pandemic, so ordered preparations.

A health officer in California was a key player and helped California institute the first lockdown. A refugee from the Bush administration stuck around the Obama White House and updated the government’s pandemic response plan annually, something that was written over a weekend by one guy. The CDC eventually took credit for it, although they weren’t involved. But there was a plan in place when Trump took office.

Then there were the efforts of a researcher at a California lab who developed a machine to quickly sequence any DNA or RNA and identify the creature it came from and any stray viruses.

Some amazing computer modeling also was able to accurately predict how quickly the virus would spread. Had elected officials paid attention, the information was there to have avoided the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans.

The author manages to weave together the stories of these heroes and how their paths crossed. But the conclusion isn’t good. Those involved found the government deeply dysfunctional and unable to property respond to the pandemic. The United States does not have the institutions to save itself. Perhaps worst was the CDC, who did a lot of great academic studies after the fact but weren’t equipped or willing to fight a disease in the heat of the moment.

Of the books I’ve read about the pandemic, this is the best one. It reads like a novel but is non-fiction and a gripping tale. It’s worth reading.

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