Here we are at the end of October and on the cusp of the holiday season. I don’t like the dark and rain of November and December but I do like the holidays. Thanksgiving and New Year’s, two secular holidays, bookend the religious celebrations of Hanukkah and Christmas. It is a good time of year to reflect on what is important. Between now and the end of the year, I’m going to run a four-part series in this newsletter about the really big picture stuff. This is the result of a lot of my recent reading. It is a bit of a departure for me, in that it isn’t about business, but I hope this will get you thinking. The installments will be:
- Are We Alone in the Universe?
- The Legacy of Space Exploration.
- The Lunacy of Space Exploration.
- Saving the Earth.
Let’s get started.
Are We Alone in the Universe?
Humans have always seemed hopeful that we are not alone in the universe. Witness the fascination with space aliens and flying saucers. Curiously, the space aliens always come in a semi-human form. Do we hope they will rescue us from our folly?
The argument for extra-terrestrial life has been that with an estimated septillion (a one followed by 24 zeros) stars in the universe, surely there must be places that have evolved intelligent life. Life capable of communicating with us.
In 1961, Frank Drake wrote a probabilistic argument to stimulate discussion about the estimated number of communicative extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy. The equation looks like this with N being the number of civilizations in the Milky Way: N = R* x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x L.
R* = The rate of formation of stars suitable for the development of intelligent life.
fp =The fraction of those starts with planetary systems.
ne = The number of planets, per solar system, with an environment suitable for life.
fl = The fraction of suitable planets on which life actually appears.
fi = The fraction of life bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges.
fc = The fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.
L = The length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.
The whole equation is very speculative and subject to bias. It has been said that it organizes our ignorance.
In 1950, preceding Drake’s equation, nuclear physicist Enrico Fermi asked, “Where is everybody?” In other words, if life was erupting all over the universe, why haven’t we had any visitors? This is known as The Fermi Paradox.
But almost 50 years after Drake laid down his equation, scientists can make slightly better assumptions about each variable in the equation. It is complicated and still wildly speculative, but scientists have generally made a conclusion: For all intents and purposes, we are alone. There may be other intelligent life in the universe, but it is so remote that we will never be able to make contact. Every location that might host another civilization is hurling away from us as the universe expands. And that expansion is accelerating. Even messages sent at the speed of light can’t catch up.
Are we alone in the universe? It seems so.
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